
Recent weeks have raised public concern in Bangladesh after several noticeable earthquakes shook the Dhaka–Narsingdi region. Many people are wondering: *Is this the start of something dangerous? Has seismic activity suddenly increased?* To answer these questions, we analyzed decades of earthquake data across Bangladesh and compared it with the events of 2025. Here is what the numbers — not rumors — actually show.

![img](/images/eqb/quake_clusters.png)

## **What the long-term data tells us**

A full historical catalog of 465 earthquakes (1976–2025) shows that Bangladesh experiences regular moderate seismicity. The recent activity sits within long-term patterns, but several features of **2025 stand out scientifically**:

### **Energy release in 2025 is higher than average**

This year’s events have released about **1.65× more seismic energy** than the historical yearly average. That increase is driven mainly by the **M5.4 earthquake on November 21**, the largest event of the year.

![img](/images/eqb/seismic_eng_per_yr.png)

### **Event counts are *not* unusually high**

Statistical tests show that **2025 has a normal number of earthquakes** — no spike in the *frequency* of events.

![img](/images/eqb/e_count.png)

### **Magnitudes remain in the typical range**

The distribution of earthquake magnitudes in 2025 does **not differ significantly** from previous decades.

![img](/images/eqb/mag_distribution.png)

![img](/images/eqb/mag_bin.png)

### **Depth is where things get interesting**

Multiple tests show that **2025 earthquakes are noticeably shallower** than in most previous years. Shallow earthquakes are felt more strongly at the surface, even if their magnitudes are moderate.

![img](/images/eqb/median_quake_depth.png)

This is one of the most important findings: **No unusual increase in the number of earthquakes — but the ones occurring are shallower, so they feel stronger.**

![img](/images/eqb/depth_dis.png)

## **Understanding the recent sequence near Dhaka / Narsingdi**

So far, four earthquakes attracted public attention in late November and early December:

| Date (UTC) | Mag     | Depth | Location        |

| ---------- | ------- | ----- | --------------- |

| **Nov 21** | **5.4** | 27 km | Narsingdi (SSW) |

| **Nov 22** | 4.3     | 10 km | Narsingdi (W)   |

| **Nov 27** | 4.0     | 10 km | Tungi (NNE)     |

| **Dec 4**  | 4.1     | 10 km | Dhaka (ESE)     |

The **21 November M5.4 earthquake** is almost certainly the **mainshock**, assuming no larger event occurred shortly before or after it. Terms like *mainshock* or *foreshock* are assigned **after** the fact, once the full sequence is known. The three subsequent earthquakes — magnitudes **4.0 to 4.3** over the following two weeks — fit the pattern of **aftershocks**, which is the normal and expected response of the crust after a moderate event like this.

Aftershock models and cluster analysis support this:

- ✔ Spatially close
- ✔ Shallow
- ✔ Occurred soon after the M5.4
- ✔ Magnitudes appropriate for aftershocks

There is **no scientific indication** that the sequence is an "ongoing mega-event" or a sign of an imminent major catastrophe.

## **Should people be worried?**

### **Short answer: No panic — but yes, be prepared.**

Based on the data:

- There is **no evidence** of a large earthquake building up in the immediate future.
- The pattern fits a **normal mainshock–aftershock sequence**.
- Bangladesh’s long-term seismic environment is active, but this year is not unprecedented.

That said, shallow earthquakes, even at moderate magnitudes, can **shake cities hard**, especially in cities like Dhaka with probably thousands of vulnerable buildings. This means:

- 🔸 **Risk exists**
- 🔸 **But it is manageable**
- 🔸 **Preparedness is the key difference-maker**

## **Why shallow earthquakes matter more**

Our analysis found a statistically significant shift toward shallower depths in 2025. This is important because:

- A shallow M4–M5 can feel like a deeper M6 in terms of surface shaking.
- Dhaka has many old and unreinforced structures that are more sensitive to this kind of shaking.
- Even without a major earthquake, shallow moderate events can cause injuries, wall collapses, and infrastructure disruption.

So the message is not "a big earthquake is coming."
The message is: **a moderate earthquake can still be damaging if buildings are fragile — so strengthen preparedness now.**

## **What people and communities can do right now**

### **A. Stay informed without panic**

Follow official bulletins from:

- Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)
- National Disaster Response agencies
- Universities or credible institutions

**Please avoid unverified social media rumors.**

### **B. Community organization**

- Form **local volunteer preparedness groups** in neighborhoods.
- Identify safe open spaces.
- Help elderly or disabled neighbors with emergency planning.
- Practice evacuation routes.

### **C. Training and drills**

Push local authorities and community leaders to:

- Organize **earthquake safety workshops**.
- Conduct **drop–cover–hold-on drills** in schools, offices, and markets.
- Teach people how to check homes for hazards (loose shelves, falling objects, unsecured gas cylinders).

### **D. Structural safety**

Citizens and journalists should push authorities to:

- Enforce building codes more strictly.
- Inspect vulnerable buildings, especially schools and hospitals.
- Provide public guidance on strengthening old structures.

### **E. Spread helpful information**

Local organizations can print simple, factual pamphlets covering:

- What to do during shaking
- How to prepare emergency kits
- Where to gather after an earthquake
- How aftershocks behave
- What NOT to believe on social media

Helping people understand what is normal in an earthquake sequence reduces fear — and that improves safety.

## **Final takeaway**

**No, Bangladesh is not currently experiencing a dramatic, unprecedented seismic crisis.**
But **yes**, 2025’s earthquakes — especially the shallow M5.4 near Narsingdi — remind us that Bangladesh sits in an active tectonic region where moderate earthquakes can be strongly felt.

- The number of earthquakes is normal.
- Magnitudes are normal.
- **Depths are shallower**, so shaking feels stronger.
- The recent events fit a **mainshock–aftershock pattern**.
- Preparedness, not panic, is the appropriate response.

Earthquakes cannot be stopped, but **knowledge, training, and readiness** can prevent injuries and save lives. The best time to prepare is **before** a larger earthquake happens — and these recent events give Bangladesh a valuable opportunity to do exactly that.

For those interested in the full analysis, code, and data, it is available on [this GitHub repository](https://github.com/mehdihasan/bd-earthquake-analysis-2025).


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